Oil Supply to Run Out Before 2050
The world will not have enough oil to meet demand through 2050 unless exploration accelerates, according to a bombshell report by Rystad Energy
Oil is Not “Dead”
In fact, it is suggested that the world is on track to run out of sufficient oil supplies to meet its needs through 2050, despite lower future demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the accelerating energy transition – unless exploration speeds up significantly.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2020 clearly indicates that global demand for oil is not going anywhere anytime soon. To meet the global cumulative demand over the next 30 years, undeveloped and undiscovered resources totaling 313 billion barrels of oil need to be added to currently producing assets.
- India remains the largest source of growth in oil demand due to the increased use of oil for transport – car ownership in the country is less than one-fifth the global average and is set to increase
- Parts of Africa and Southeast Asia will also contribute to increasing global demand for oil through to 2030 and beyond
- Oil demand in China peaks at around 15 million bpd in 2030
- An increase in oil demand of 9 million bpd in emerging market and developing economics more than make up for the decline elsewhere
- Global demand for oil will grow by 5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021
- Global oil demand then rises by 0.7 million bpd each year on average through to 2030
- Past 2030, oil demand is projected to increase by 100,000 bpd per year
- Overall demand in advanced economies falls by 5 million bpd between 2019 and 2030
According to the IEA, the speed and scale of oil demand recovery is progressing much faster for some sectors than expected as a result of the change in how people are consuming products and services.
For example, the petrochemical and trucking sectors have rebounded rather quickly from the economic recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. More people are buying retail goods online while the use of petrochemical products is also increasing, both combining to exceed demand that has been lost in aviation and other sectors.
Need for Investment if the world doesn’t want to run short on oil supplies
Rystad Energy concluded in it’s report that there is a major need for additional investment into exploration over the next 30 years if the world doesn’t want to run short on oil supplies.
“The scope of exploration will have to expand significantly. Unless we see a momentous transition in the global energy mix sooner than currently expected, or a much faster development pace than the current norm, upstream players may have to more than double their conventional exploration efforts in order to meet global oil demand through 2050,” says Palzor Shenga, senior upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.
Canada – the preferred global supplier of Oil and Gas
Canada is one of the most transparent and environmentally responsible producers on the planet, with 97% of Canada’s oil sands land recoverable. Once oil demand returns to pre-pandemic levels, we can look forward to being a global supplier of choice as consumption continues to grow into the foreseeable future.
As a preferred global supplier of choice, as long as the world needs oil – and it will, for many, many years, Canada will be one of the “last ones out of the pool” thanks to our investment in world-class environmental, social and governance rankings.
The True Nature of AiM Land –
We are a full service land consulting firm with innovative and expert knowledge of the land. We offer expertise for a broad spectrum of major energy projects across Canada and the United States. We are a full-service broker that does all portions of a project internally; we do not outsource any part of the work. We utilize leading edge technology to reduce costs, improve communications, and ultimately deliver the project more efficiently and done for the best price. Our strong and dynamic team brings extensive knowledge from the field and varying experiences to each project.
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